The Bidding War Index measures how often homes sell for more than their original asking price. For the 3 months ending August 31, 2026, 54.2% of homes sold across the 670 ZIP codes we track closed above their original list price, up 1 points from a year earlier.
By area
Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ had the highest share of homes selling above list, at 66%. Santa Clara & San Benito counties, CA had the lowest, at 45.5%. In 396 of the 670 ZIP codes, more than half of homes sold above their original list price.
| Area | Sold above original list | vs. a year ago | Avg. sale-to-list | Median months of supply | Homes sold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 66% | -0.8 pts | 105.4% | 2.1 | 5,875 |
| San Francisco & San Mateo, CA | 61.2% | +12.9 pts | 108.5% | 1.4 | 3,064 |
| Nassau & Suffolk counties, NY | 55.8% | +0.6 pts | 102% | 2.6 | 7,090 |
| Bergen, Hudson & Passaic, NJ | 53.6% | -0.8 pts | 102.8% | 3.2 | 4,690 |
| Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean & Somerset, NJ | 46% | +0.1 pts | 101.1% | 2.5 | 8,345 |
| Santa Clara & San Benito counties, CA | 45.5% | -1 pts | 101.9% | 2.1 | 3,381 |
The trend
Over the last 24 months, the index peaked at 57.5% in the 3 months ending September 30, 2024. Compared with the previous month’s reading, it moved down 0.7 points.
Where bidding wars were most common
| ZIP code | Area | Sold above original list | Sale-to-list | Months of supply |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glen Ridge, NJ 07028 | Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 99.9% | 127.6% | 0.4 |
| Montclair, NJ 07043 | Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 94.2% | 126.3% | 0.4 |
| Pine Brook, NJ 07058 | Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 93.7% | 109.5% | 0.4 |
| San Francisco, CA 94134 | San Francisco & San Mateo, CA | 91.4% | 113.6% | 1.4 |
| New Providence, NJ 07974 | Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 90.6% | 112.2% | 0.7 |
| Millington, NJ 07946 | Essex, Morris, Union, Sussex & Hunterdon, NJ | 89.9% | 108.4% | 0.2 |
| Paterson, NJ 07504 | Bergen, Hudson & Passaic, NJ | 88.2% | 104.5% | 3.6 |
| Middlesex, NJ 08846 | Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean & Somerset, NJ | 87.4% | 106.3% | 3.8 |
| Waldwick, NJ 07463 | Bergen, Hudson & Passaic, NJ | 85.7% | 108.7% | 2.7 |
| San Francisco, CA 94121 | San Francisco & San Mateo, CA | 85.7% | 121.5% | 1 |
ZIP codes with at least 15 sales in the period.
What this means if you’re buying
In ZIP codes where most homes sell above their original list price, offers at or below asking are less likely to win on price alone. Buyers there often compare recent sale-to-list ratios, get fully pre-approved before touring, and decide on a firm top price before an offer deadline.
Figures are rolling 3-month values from Redfin and may be revised. See how we measure, check any ZIP with the market checker, or estimate your odds on a specific house with Can I win this house?.